Calcolatrice Distribuzione Poisson - Prevedere Risultati Esatti
Calcolatrice Poisson gratis per scommesse calcio. Calcola probabilità partite e previsioni risultati esatti.
Come usare questo calcolatore
- Inserisci i gol attesi per la squadra di casa (basati sulla tua analisi o dati xG)
- Inserisci i gol attesi per la squadra in trasferta
- Visualizza le probabilità di vittoria casa, pareggio, vittoria trasferta, over/under 2.5 e BTTS
- Controlla la griglia di probabilità di punteggio per previsioni di score specifici
Formula
Probabilità di Poisson: P(k) = (λ^k × e^(-λ)) / k!
Dove λ = gol attesi, k = gol effettivamente segnati
Probabilità del punteggio = P(Casa = h) × P(Trasferta = a)
Assume che i gol di casa e trasferta siano eventi indipendenti.
Domande frequenti
What is the Poisson distribution in betting?
The Poisson distribution is a statistical model used to predict the probability of a given number of events (goals) occurring in a fixed period. It’s widely used in football betting to predict match scorelines from expected goals averages.
How do I find expected goals?
Expected goals (xG) can be found from football statistics sites. Alternatively, you can calculate a team’s average goals scored per game from recent matches. More sophisticated models account for home advantage, opponent strength, and recent form.
How accurate is the Poisson model?
The Poisson model provides a reasonable baseline for football predictions. Its main limitation is that it assumes goals are independent events, which isn’t always true (e.g., momentum effects, red cards). It works best for pre-match predictions in leagues with consistent scoring patterns.
What markets can I use Poisson for?
Poisson is most commonly used for 1X2 (match result), correct score, over/under goals, and both teams to score (BTTS) markets. It can also be adapted for Asian handicaps and half-time/full-time predictions.