Calcolatrice Streak - Probabilità Serie Vincenti e Perdenti
Calcolatrice streak gratis per scommesse sportive. Calcola la probabilità di serie vincenti o perdenti, serie più lunghe attese e implicazioni per il bankroll.
Come usare questo calcolatore
- Inserisci la tua probabilità di vittoria per puntata singola in percentuale (es. 55)
- Inserisci la lunghezza della serie che vuoi valutare
- Inserisci il numero totale di puntate
- Visualizza la probabilità della serie e la serie più lunga attesa
Formula
P(serie di N vittorie) = p ^ N
P(serie di N sconfitte) = (1 − p) ^ N
Serie più lunga attesa (approssimativamente) = log(N · (1 − p)) / log(1 / p)
P(≥ 1 serie vincente di lunghezza N in M puntate) ≈ 1 − (1 − p^N)^(M − N + 1)
Domande frequenti
Why does my expected longest streak look so long?
Variance grows logarithmically with sample size. With 1000 coin flips you’ll typically see a streak of 9-10 heads. Long streaks feel surprising but are mathematically expected — most bettors mistake them for hot/cold periods rather than ordinary variance.
How does streak length affect bankroll management?
Even a 60% win rate produces 5+ losing streaks regularly. Bankroll management (Kelly fractions, flat staking) must absorb these without ruin. Use this calculator with a streak length of 5-7 to see how often you’ll see those losing runs and size your unit accordingly.
Are sports streaks predictive?
Mostly no. Independent events (coin-flip-like markets) produce streaks purely by chance. There can be small predictive effects (injury cascades, team morale) but they’re usually overstated. Treat past streaks as variance unless you have concrete model-based reasons to believe otherwise.
What's the math behind 'expected longest run'?
For independent Bernoulli trials with success probability p over N trials, the expected longest run of successes converges to log(N(1−p))/log(1/p). It’s a logarithmic approximation that’s accurate for large N and gives the typical longest streak you’d observe.