Kalkulator Poisson - Prediksi Skor Sepak Bola
Kalkulator distribusi Poisson gratis. Hitung probabilitas skor untuk pertandingan sepak bola. Alat prediksi statistik.
Cara menggunakan kalkulator ini
- Masukkan gol yang diharapkan untuk tim tuan rumah (berdasarkan analisis Anda atau data xG)
- Masukkan gol yang diharapkan untuk tim tandang
- Lihat probabilitas untuk kemenangan tuan rumah, seri, kemenangan tandang, over/under 2.5, dan BTTS
- Periksa grid probabilitas skor untuk prediksi skor spesifik
Rumus
Probabilitas Poisson: P(k) = (λ^k × e^(-λ)) / k!
Di mana λ = gol yang diharapkan, k = gol aktual yang dicetak
Probabilitas Skor = P(Tuan Rumah = h) × P(Tandang = a)
Mengasumsikan gol tuan rumah dan tandang adalah peristiwa independen.
Pertanyaan yang sering diajukan
What is the Poisson distribution in betting?
The Poisson distribution is a statistical model used to predict the probability of a given number of events (goals) occurring in a fixed period. It’s widely used in football betting to predict match scorelines from expected goals averages.
How do I find expected goals?
Expected goals (xG) can be found from football statistics sites. Alternatively, you can calculate a team’s average goals scored per game from recent matches. More sophisticated models account for home advantage, opponent strength, and recent form.
How accurate is the Poisson model?
The Poisson model provides a reasonable baseline for football predictions. Its main limitation is that it assumes goals are independent events, which isn’t always true (e.g., momentum effects, red cards). It works best for pre-match predictions in leagues with consistent scoring patterns.
What markets can I use Poisson for?
Poisson is most commonly used for 1X2 (match result), correct score, over/under goals, and both teams to score (BTTS) markets. It can also be adapted for Asian handicaps and half-time/full-time predictions.