Calculadora Distribuição Poisson - Prever Placares Exatos
Calculadora Poisson grátis para apostas de futebol. Calcule probabilidades de partidas e previsões de placares exatos.
Como usar esta calculadora
- Insira os gols esperados para o time da casa (com base em sua análise ou dados xG)
- Insira os gols esperados para o time visitante
- Veja probabilidades de vitória em casa, empate, vitória fora, mais/menos 2.5 e BTTS
- Verifique a grade de probabilidades de placar para previsões de placar específico
Fórmula
Probabilidade de Poisson: P(k) = (λ^k × e^(-λ)) / k!
Onde λ = gols esperados, k = gols realmente marcados
Probabilidade de placar = P(Casa = h) × P(Visitante = a)
Assume que gols em casa e fora são eventos independentes.
Perguntas frequentes
What is the Poisson distribution in betting?
The Poisson distribution is a statistical model used to predict the probability of a given number of events (goals) occurring in a fixed period. It’s widely used in football betting to predict match scorelines from expected goals averages.
How do I find expected goals?
Expected goals (xG) can be found from football statistics sites. Alternatively, you can calculate a team’s average goals scored per game from recent matches. More sophisticated models account for home advantage, opponent strength, and recent form.
How accurate is the Poisson model?
The Poisson model provides a reasonable baseline for football predictions. Its main limitation is that it assumes goals are independent events, which isn’t always true (e.g., momentum effects, red cards). It works best for pre-match predictions in leagues with consistent scoring patterns.
What markets can I use Poisson for?
Poisson is most commonly used for 1X2 (match result), correct score, over/under goals, and both teams to score (BTTS) markets. It can also be adapted for Asian handicaps and half-time/full-time predictions.