泊松分布计算器 - 预测精确比分
免费泊松计算器用于足球博彩。计算比赛概率、精确比分预测、大小盘赔率。
如何使用此计算器
- 输入主队的预期进球数(基于您的分析或xG数据)
- 输入客队的预期进球数
- 查看主胜、平局、客胜、大/小2.5和BTTS的概率
- 查看具体比分预测的比分概率网格
公式
泊松概率: P(k) = (λ^k × e^(-λ)) / k!
其中λ = 预期进球数,k = 实际进球数
比分概率 = P(主队 = h) × P(客队 = a)
假设主队和客队进球是独立事件。
常见问题
What is the Poisson distribution in betting?
The Poisson distribution is a statistical model used to predict the probability of a given number of events (goals) occurring in a fixed period. It’s widely used in football betting to predict match scorelines from expected goals averages.
How do I find expected goals?
Expected goals (xG) can be found from football statistics sites. Alternatively, you can calculate a team’s average goals scored per game from recent matches. More sophisticated models account for home advantage, opponent strength, and recent form.
How accurate is the Poisson model?
The Poisson model provides a reasonable baseline for football predictions. Its main limitation is that it assumes goals are independent events, which isn’t always true (e.g., momentum effects, red cards). It works best for pre-match predictions in leagues with consistent scoring patterns.
What markets can I use Poisson for?
Poisson is most commonly used for 1X2 (match result), correct score, over/under goals, and both teams to score (BTTS) markets. It can also be adapted for Asian handicaps and half-time/full-time predictions.