ポアソン計算機 - サッカースコア確率
無料ポアソン計算機。ポアソン分布に基づく正確なスコアと結果の確率を計算。
この計算機の使い方
- ホームチームの予想ゴール数を入力(分析またはxGデータに基づく)
- アウェイチームの予想ゴール数を入力
- ホーム勝利、引き分け、アウェイ勝利、オーバー/アンダー2.5、BTTSの確率を表示
- 特定のスコア予測のためのスコアライン確率グリッドをチェック
公式
ポアソン確率:P(k) =(λ^k × e^(-λ))/ k!
λ = 予想ゴール、k = 実際のゴール数
スコアライン確率 = P(ホーム = h)× P(アウェイ = a)
ホームとアウェイのゴールが独立したイベントであると仮定。
よくある質問
What is the Poisson distribution in betting?
The Poisson distribution is a statistical model used to predict the probability of a given number of events (goals) occurring in a fixed period. It’s widely used in football betting to predict match scorelines from expected goals averages.
How do I find expected goals?
Expected goals (xG) can be found from football statistics sites. Alternatively, you can calculate a team’s average goals scored per game from recent matches. More sophisticated models account for home advantage, opponent strength, and recent form.
How accurate is the Poisson model?
The Poisson model provides a reasonable baseline for football predictions. Its main limitation is that it assumes goals are independent events, which isn’t always true (e.g., momentum effects, red cards). It works best for pre-match predictions in leagues with consistent scoring patterns.
What markets can I use Poisson for?
Poisson is most commonly used for 1X2 (match result), correct score, over/under goals, and both teams to score (BTTS) markets. It can also be adapted for Asian handicaps and half-time/full-time predictions.