Calculadora Distribución Poisson - Predecir Marcadores Exactos
Calculadora Poisson gratis para apuestas de fútbol. Calcula probabilidades de partidos y predicciones de marcadores exactos.
Cómo usar esta calculadora
- Introduzca los goles esperados para el equipo local (basados en su análisis o datos de xG)
- Introduzca los goles esperados para el equipo visitante
- Vea las probabilidades de victoria local, empate, victoria visitante, más/menos 2.5 y BTTS
- Compruebe la cuadrícula de probabilidades de marcador para predicciones de resultados específicos
Fórmula
Probabilidad de Poisson: P(k) = (λ^k × e^(-λ)) / k!
Donde λ = goles esperados, k = goles realmente marcados
Probabilidad de marcador = P(Local = h) × P(Visitante = a)
Asume que los goles locales y visitantes son eventos independientes.
Preguntas frecuentes
What is the Poisson distribution in betting?
The Poisson distribution is a statistical model used to predict the probability of a given number of events (goals) occurring in a fixed period. It’s widely used in football betting to predict match scorelines from expected goals averages.
How do I find expected goals?
Expected goals (xG) can be found from football statistics sites. Alternatively, you can calculate a team’s average goals scored per game from recent matches. More sophisticated models account for home advantage, opponent strength, and recent form.
How accurate is the Poisson model?
The Poisson model provides a reasonable baseline for football predictions. Its main limitation is that it assumes goals are independent events, which isn’t always true (e.g., momentum effects, red cards). It works best for pre-match predictions in leagues with consistent scoring patterns.
What markets can I use Poisson for?
Poisson is most commonly used for 1X2 (match result), correct score, over/under goals, and both teams to score (BTTS) markets. It can also be adapted for Asian handicaps and half-time/full-time predictions.