푸아송 계산기 - 축구 스코어 예측
무료 푸아송 분포 계산기. 축구 경기의 스코어 확률을 계산하세요. 통계적 예측 도구.
이 계산기 사용 방법
- 홈 팀의 예상 골을 입력하세요 (분석 또는 xG 데이터 기반)
- 어웨이 팀의 예상 골을 입력하세요
- 홈 승리, 무승부, 어웨이 승리, 오버/언더 2.5 및 BTTS 확률을 보세요
- 특정 점수 예측을 위한 점수 확률 그리드를 확인하세요
공식
포아송 확률: P(k) = (λ^k × e^(-λ)) / k!
λ = 예상 골, k = 실제 득점
점수 확률 = P(홈 = h) × P(어웨이 = a)
홈과 어웨이 골이 독립적인 사건이라고 가정합니다.
자주 묻는 질문
What is the Poisson distribution in betting?
The Poisson distribution is a statistical model used to predict the probability of a given number of events (goals) occurring in a fixed period. It’s widely used in football betting to predict match scorelines from expected goals averages.
How do I find expected goals?
Expected goals (xG) can be found from football statistics sites. Alternatively, you can calculate a team’s average goals scored per game from recent matches. More sophisticated models account for home advantage, opponent strength, and recent form.
How accurate is the Poisson model?
The Poisson model provides a reasonable baseline for football predictions. Its main limitation is that it assumes goals are independent events, which isn’t always true (e.g., momentum effects, red cards). It works best for pre-match predictions in leagues with consistent scoring patterns.
What markets can I use Poisson for?
Poisson is most commonly used for 1X2 (match result), correct score, over/under goals, and both teams to score (BTTS) markets. It can also be adapted for Asian handicaps and half-time/full-time predictions.