凯利公式计算器 - 最佳投注额计算
免费凯利公式计算器。根据资金、赔率和胜率计算数学上的最佳投注额。
如何使用此计算器
- 选择您的赔率格式(小数、分数或美式)
- 输入您投注的赔率
- 输入您估计的获胜概率(以百分比表示)
- 输入您的总银行存款
- 查看Kelly分数、推荐投注和半/四分之一Kelly替代方案
公式
Kelly准则公式:
f* = (bp - q) / b
其中:
- f* = 投注的银行存款分数
- b = 小数赔率 - 1(每美元的净利润)
- p = 获胜概率
- q = 失败概率(1 - p)
预期价值 = (p × b) - q
常见问题
What is the Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal size of a bet to maximize long-term growth of your bankroll while avoiding ruin.
Should I always bet the full Kelly amount?
Most experienced bettors use fractional Kelly (half or quarter Kelly) to reduce variance. Full Kelly can lead to large swings even with a proven edge.
What does a negative Kelly value mean?
A negative Kelly value means the bet has negative expected value. You should not place this bet as it would lose money over time.
How accurate does my probability estimate need to be?
The Kelly formula is very sensitive to probability estimates. Overestimating your edge leads to overbetting, which is why fractional Kelly is recommended as a safety margin.