Kalkulator Kriteria Kelly - Ukuran Taruhan Optimal
Kalkulator Kriteria Kelly gratis. Hitung ukuran taruhan optimal untuk pertumbuhan jangka panjang. Pendekatan ilmiah untuk manajemen modal.
Cara menggunakan kalkulator ini
- Pilih format odds Anda (Desimal, Pecahan, atau Amerika)
- Masukkan odds untuk taruhan Anda
- Masukkan probabilitas kemenangan yang Anda perkirakan (dalam persentase)
- Masukkan total bankroll Anda
- Lihat fraksi Kelly, taruhan yang direkomendasikan, dan alternatif setengah/seperempat Kelly
Rumus
Rumus Kriteria Kelly:
f* = (bp - q) / b
Di mana:
- f* = fraksi bankroll untuk dipertaruhkan
- b = odds desimal - 1 (keuntungan bersih per dolar)
- p = probabilitas menang
- q = probabilitas kalah (1 - p)
Nilai yang Diharapkan = (p × b) - q
Pertanyaan yang sering diajukan
What is the Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal size of a bet to maximize long-term growth of your bankroll while avoiding ruin.
Should I always bet the full Kelly amount?
Most experienced bettors use fractional Kelly (half or quarter Kelly) to reduce variance. Full Kelly can lead to large swings even with a proven edge.
What does a negative Kelly value mean?
A negative Kelly value means the bet has negative expected value. You should not place this bet as it would lose money over time.
How accurate does my probability estimate need to be?
The Kelly formula is very sensitive to probability estimates. Overestimating your edge leads to overbetting, which is why fractional Kelly is recommended as a safety margin.