连胜连败计算器 - 博彩连胜概率

免费连胜计算器用于体育博彩。计算连胜或连败的概率、预期最长连续次数和资金影响。

请输入 0.1% 至 99.9% 之间的概率
结果
P(N 连胜) --
P(N 连败) --
期望最长连续 --
P(N 注中 ≥ 1 次连续) --

如何使用此计算器

  1. 输入您的单注获胜概率百分比(例如55)
  2. 输入您要评估的连胜长度
  3. 输入投注总数
  4. 查看连胜概率和预期最长连胜

公式

P(N次获胜的连胜) = p ^ N

P(N次失败的连败) = (1 − p) ^ N

预期最长连胜(近似) = log(N · (1 − p)) / log(1 / p)

P(在M次投注中长度为N的≥1次获胜连胜) ≈ 1 − (1 − p^N)^(M − N + 1)

常见问题

Why does my expected longest streak look so long?

Variance grows logarithmically with sample size. With 1000 coin flips you’ll typically see a streak of 9-10 heads. Long streaks feel surprising but are mathematically expected — most bettors mistake them for hot/cold periods rather than ordinary variance.

How does streak length affect bankroll management?

Even a 60% win rate produces 5+ losing streaks regularly. Bankroll management (Kelly fractions, flat staking) must absorb these without ruin. Use this calculator with a streak length of 5-7 to see how often you’ll see those losing runs and size your unit accordingly.

Are sports streaks predictive?

Mostly no. Independent events (coin-flip-like markets) produce streaks purely by chance. There can be small predictive effects (injury cascades, team morale) but they’re usually overstated. Treat past streaks as variance unless you have concrete model-based reasons to believe otherwise.

What's the math behind 'expected longest run'?

For independent Bernoulli trials with success probability p over N trials, the expected longest run of successes converges to log(N(1−p))/log(1/p). It’s a logarithmic approximation that’s accurate for large N and gives the typical longest streak you’d observe.