ケリー基準計算機 - 最適賭け金
無料ケリー基準計算機。エッジとバンクロールに基づいて数学的に最適な賭け金を計算。
この計算機の使い方
- オッズ形式を選択(小数点、分数、またはアメリカン)
- ベットのオッズを入力
- 推定された勝率を入力(パーセント)
- 合計バンクロールを入力
- ケリー分数、推奨ベット、ハーフ/クォーターケリー代替案を表示
公式
ケリー基準の式:
f* =(bp - q)/ b
どこで:
- f* = ベットするバンクロールの分数
- b = 小数点オッズ - 1(1ドルあたりの純利益)
- p = 勝率
- q = 敗率(1 - p)
期待値 =(p × b)- q
よくある質問
What is the Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal size of a bet to maximize long-term growth of your bankroll while avoiding ruin.
Should I always bet the full Kelly amount?
Most experienced bettors use fractional Kelly (half or quarter Kelly) to reduce variance. Full Kelly can lead to large swings even with a proven edge.
What does a negative Kelly value mean?
A negative Kelly value means the bet has negative expected value. You should not place this bet as it would lose money over time.
How accurate does my probability estimate need to be?
The Kelly formula is very sensitive to probability estimates. Overestimating your edge leads to overbetting, which is why fractional Kelly is recommended as a safety margin.