Calculadora Criterio Kelly - Tamaño Óptimo de Apuesta
Calculadora Kelly gratis. Calcula el stake óptimo matemáticamente basado en tu bankroll, cuotas y probabilidad.
Cómo usar esta calculadora
- Seleccione su formato de cuotas (Decimal, Fraccionario o Americano)
- Introduzca las cuotas para su apuesta
- Introduzca su probabilidad estimada de ganar (en porcentaje)
- Introduzca su bankroll total
- Vea la fracción de Kelly, la apuesta recomendada y las alternativas medio/cuarto de Kelly
Fórmula
Fórmula del Criterio de Kelly:
f* = (bp - q) / b
Donde:
- f* = fracción del bankroll a apostar
- b = cuotas decimales - 1 (beneficio neto por dólar)
- p = probabilidad de ganar
- q = probabilidad de perder (1 - p)
Valor esperado = (p × b) - q
Preguntas frecuentes
What is the Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal size of a bet to maximize long-term growth of your bankroll while avoiding ruin.
Should I always bet the full Kelly amount?
Most experienced bettors use fractional Kelly (half or quarter Kelly) to reduce variance. Full Kelly can lead to large swings even with a proven edge.
What does a negative Kelly value mean?
A negative Kelly value means the bet has negative expected value. You should not place this bet as it would lose money over time.
How accurate does my probability estimate need to be?
The Kelly formula is very sensitive to probability estimates. Overestimating your edge leads to overbetting, which is why fractional Kelly is recommended as a safety margin.