Kelly Criterium Calculator - Optimale Inzet
Gratis Kelly Criterium calculator. Bereken de optimale inzet voor langetermijngroei. Wetenschappelijke benadering voor bankroll beheer.
Hoe deze calculator te gebruiken
- Selecteer uw oddsformaat (Decimaal, Fractioneel of Amerikaans)
- Voer de odds in voor uw weddenschap
- Voer uw geschatte winstkans in (in percentage)
- Voer uw totale bankroll in
- Bekijk de Kelly-fractie, aanbevolen inzet en halve/kwart Kelly-alternatieven
Formule
Kelly-criterium formule:
f* = (bp - q) / b
Waarbij:
- f* = fractie van bankroll om in te zetten
- b = decimale odds - 1 (netto winst per dollar)
- p = winstkans
- q = verlieskans (1 - p)
Verwachte waarde = (p × b) - q
Veelgestelde vragen
What is the Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal size of a bet to maximize long-term growth of your bankroll while avoiding ruin.
Should I always bet the full Kelly amount?
Most experienced bettors use fractional Kelly (half or quarter Kelly) to reduce variance. Full Kelly can lead to large swings even with a proven edge.
What does a negative Kelly value mean?
A negative Kelly value means the bet has negative expected value. You should not place this bet as it would lose money over time.
How accurate does my probability estimate need to be?
The Kelly formula is very sensitive to probability estimates. Overestimating your edge leads to overbetting, which is why fractional Kelly is recommended as a safety margin.