期望值计算器 - 体育博彩EV计算
免费期望值计算器。根据赔率和获胜概率计算投注是否长期盈利。寻找正期望值机会。
如何使用此计算器
- 选择您的赔率格式(小数、分数或美式)
- 输入选择的博彩公司赔率
- 输入您估计的真实获胜概率(以百分比表示)
- 输入您计划的投注金额
- 查看预期价值、edge百分比以及投注是否为+EV
公式
预期价值 = (获胜概率 × 利润) - (失败概率 × 投注)
每单位EV = (p × (小数赔率 - 1)) - (1 - p)
Edge % = 每单位EV × 100
其中p = 您估计的真实获胜概率(作为小数)
常见问题
What is expected value in betting?
Expected value (EV) is the average amount you expect to win or lose per bet over the long run. A positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable long-term, while negative EV (-EV) means you will lose money over time.
What does +EV mean?
A +EV (positive expected value) bet means you have an edge over the bookmaker. If you consistently place +EV bets, you will be profitable in the long run, even though individual bets can still lose.
How do I estimate the true probability?
You can estimate true probability using your own research, statistical models, or by comparing odds across multiple bookmakers. The key is having a more accurate probability estimate than the bookmaker.
Can I lose money on +EV bets?
Yes, individual +EV bets can lose. Expected value is a long-term concept. Over hundreds or thousands of bets, positive EV will result in profit, but short-term variance means individual losses are normal.