Verwachte Waarde Calculator - Weddenschap Analyse
Gratis verwachte waarde (EV) calculator. Bereken de langetermijn winstgevendheid van uw weddenschappen. Identificeer value bets.
Hoe deze calculator te gebruiken
- Selecteer uw oddsformaat (Decimaal, Fractioneel of Amerikaans)
- Voer de odds van de bookmaker in voor de selectie
- Voer uw geschatte werkelijke winstkans in (in percentage)
- Voer uw geplande inzetbedrag in
- Bekijk de verwachte waarde, edge-percentage en of de weddenschap +EV is
Formule
Verwachte waarde = (Winstkans × Winst) - (Verlieskans × Inzet)
EV per eenheid = (p × (Decimale odds - 1)) - (1 - p)
Edge % = EV per eenheid × 100
Waarbij p = uw geschatte werkelijke winstkans (als decimaal)
Veelgestelde vragen
What is expected value in betting?
Expected value (EV) is the average amount you expect to win or lose per bet over the long run. A positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable long-term, while negative EV (-EV) means you will lose money over time.
What does +EV mean?
A +EV (positive expected value) bet means you have an edge over the bookmaker. If you consistently place +EV bets, you will be profitable in the long run, even though individual bets can still lose.
How do I estimate the true probability?
You can estimate true probability using your own research, statistical models, or by comparing odds across multiple bookmakers. The key is having a more accurate probability estimate than the bookmaker.
Can I lose money on +EV bets?
Yes, individual +EV bets can lose. Expected value is a long-term concept. Over hundreds or thousands of bets, positive EV will result in profit, but short-term variance means individual losses are normal.