Reeks Calculator - Win/Verlies Reeksen

Gratis reeks calculator. Bereken de kans op win- en verliesreeksen. Gebruik voor weddenschap strategie planning.

Voer een kans tussen 0,1 % en 99,9 % in
Resultaten
P(winreeks van lengte N) --
P(verliesreeks van lengte N) --
Verwachte langste reeks --
P(≥ 1 reeks in N weddenschappen) --

Hoe deze calculator te gebruiken

  1. Voer uw enkele-weddenschap winstkans in als percentage (bijv. 55)
  2. Voer de streaklengte in die u wilt evalueren
  3. Voer het totale aantal weddenschappen in
  4. Bekijk de streakkans en verwachte langste reeks

Formule

P(streak van N winsten) = p ^ N

P(streak van N verliezen) = (1 − p) ^ N

Verwachte langste reeks (ongeveer) = log(N · (1 − p)) / log(1 / p)

P(≥ 1 winnende streak van lengte N in M weddenschappen) ≈ 1 − (1 − p^N)^(M − N + 1)

Veelgestelde vragen

Why does my expected longest streak look so long?

Variance grows logarithmically with sample size. With 1000 coin flips you’ll typically see a streak of 9-10 heads. Long streaks feel surprising but are mathematically expected — most bettors mistake them for hot/cold periods rather than ordinary variance.

How does streak length affect bankroll management?

Even a 60% win rate produces 5+ losing streaks regularly. Bankroll management (Kelly fractions, flat staking) must absorb these without ruin. Use this calculator with a streak length of 5-7 to see how often you’ll see those losing runs and size your unit accordingly.

Are sports streaks predictive?

Mostly no. Independent events (coin-flip-like markets) produce streaks purely by chance. There can be small predictive effects (injury cascades, team morale) but they’re usually overstated. Treat past streaks as variance unless you have concrete model-based reasons to believe otherwise.

What's the math behind 'expected longest run'?

For independent Bernoulli trials with success probability p over N trials, the expected longest run of successes converges to log(N(1−p))/log(1/p). It’s a logarithmic approximation that’s accurate for large N and gives the typical longest streak you’d observe.