期待値計算機 - +EVベットを発見
無料期待値計算機。オッズとあなたの確率見積もりに基づいて、ベットがプラスの期待値を持つか判断。
この計算機の使い方
- オッズ形式を選択(小数点、分数、またはアメリカン)
- 選択のブックメーカーオッズを入力
- 推定された真の勝率を入力(パーセント)
- 計画したベット金額を入力
- 期待値、エッジパーセンテージ、ベットが+EVかどうかを表示
公式
期待値 =(勝率 × 利益)-(敗率 × ベット)
単位あたりEV =(p ×(小数点オッズ - 1))-(1 - p)
エッジ% = 単位あたりEV × 100
p = あなたの推定された真の勝率(小数として)
よくある質問
What is expected value in betting?
Expected value (EV) is the average amount you expect to win or lose per bet over the long run. A positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable long-term, while negative EV (-EV) means you will lose money over time.
What does +EV mean?
A +EV (positive expected value) bet means you have an edge over the bookmaker. If you consistently place +EV bets, you will be profitable in the long run, even though individual bets can still lose.
How do I estimate the true probability?
You can estimate true probability using your own research, statistical models, or by comparing odds across multiple bookmakers. The key is having a more accurate probability estimate than the bookmaker.
Can I lose money on +EV bets?
Yes, individual +EV bets can lose. Expected value is a long-term concept. Over hundreds or thousands of bets, positive EV will result in profit, but short-term variance means individual losses are normal.