حاسبة السلسلة - سلاسل الفوز/الخسارة

Variance grows logarithmically with sample size. With 1000 coin flips you’ll typically see a streak of 9-10 heads. Long streaks feel surprising but are mathematically expected — most bettors mistake them for hot/cold periods rather than ordinary variance.

Even a 60% win rate produces 5+ losing streaks regularly. Bankroll management (Kelly fractions, flat staking) must absorb these without ruin. Use this calculator with a streak length of 5-7 to see how often you’ll see those losing runs and size your unit accordingly.

Mostly no. Independent events (coin-flip-like markets) produce streaks purely by chance. There can be small predictive effects (injury cascades, team morale) but they’re usually overstated. Treat past streaks as variance unless you have concrete model-based reasons to believe otherwise.

For independent Bernoulli trials with success probability p over N trials, the expected longest run of successes converges to log(N(1−p))/log(1/p). It’s a logarithmic approximation that’s accurate for large N and gives the typical longest streak you’d observe.