Kalkulator Nilai Harapan - Analisis Value Taruhan
Kalkulator nilai harapan (EV) gratis. Hitung profitabilitas jangka panjang taruhan Anda. Identifikasi value bet.
Cara menggunakan kalkulator ini
- Pilih format odds Anda (Desimal, Pecahan, atau Amerika)
- Masukkan odds bandar untuk pilihan tersebut
- Masukkan probabilitas kemenangan asli yang Anda perkirakan (dalam persentase)
- Masukkan jumlah taruhan yang direncanakan
- Lihat nilai yang diharapkan, persentase edge, dan apakah taruhan +EV
Rumus
Nilai yang Diharapkan = (Probabilitas Menang × Keuntungan) - (Probabilitas Kalah × Taruhan)
EV per unit = (p × (Odds Desimal - 1)) - (1 - p)
Edge % = EV per unit × 100
Di mana p = probabilitas kemenangan asli yang Anda perkirakan (sebagai desimal)
Pertanyaan yang sering diajukan
What is expected value in betting?
Expected value (EV) is the average amount you expect to win or lose per bet over the long run. A positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable long-term, while negative EV (-EV) means you will lose money over time.
What does +EV mean?
A +EV (positive expected value) bet means you have an edge over the bookmaker. If you consistently place +EV bets, you will be profitable in the long run, even though individual bets can still lose.
How do I estimate the true probability?
You can estimate true probability using your own research, statistical models, or by comparing odds across multiple bookmakers. The key is having a more accurate probability estimate than the bookmaker.
Can I lose money on +EV bets?
Yes, individual +EV bets can lose. Expected value is a long-term concept. Over hundreds or thousands of bets, positive EV will result in profit, but short-term variance means individual losses are normal.