Calculateur Demi-Point - Achat et Vente de Points
Calculateur demi-point gratuit. Calculez les nouvelles cotes lors de l'achat ou la vente de points sur les lignes de handicap.
Comment utiliser ce calculateur
- Saisissez le spread de points actuel
- Saisissez les cotes au spread actuel (en format américain, ex. -110)
- Saisissez les cotes si vous achetez un demi-point (ex. -120)
- Visualisez le coût en probabilité implicite et si cela vaut la peine d’acheter le demi-point
Formule
Probabilité implicite depuis cotes américaines :
- Négatives : |Cotes| / (|Cotes| + 100) × 100
- Positives : 100 / (Cotes + 100) × 100
Coût du demi-point = Prob implicite (Cotes demi-point) - Prob implicite (Cotes actuelles)
Vaut l’achat si Coût < Probabilité que le match tombe sur le numéro
Questions fréquentes
What does buying a half point mean?
Buying a half point means paying extra juice (worse odds) to move the spread by 0.5 points in your favor. For example, moving from -3 to -2.5 eliminates the chance of a push on exactly 3 points.
What are key numbers in NFL betting?
Key numbers are the most common margins of victory. In the NFL, 3 is the most important (~15% of games), followed by 7 (~10%), 1 (~6%), and 10 (~5%). Moving off these numbers is generally more valuable.
Is it usually worth buying a half point?
It depends on the number. Buying off 3 is almost always worth it at standard prices because games land on 3 about 15% of the time. Buying off non-key numbers is rarely worth the extra cost.
Does this work for NBA?
NBA margins of victory are more evenly distributed, so no single number is as important as 3 in the NFL. Key NBA numbers are less pronounced, making half-point purchases generally less valuable.